Liquidity pressure is the biggest risk to the economy

Liquidity in asset markets has dropped to low levels while outstanding debt remains high, showing that the absorption capacity of cash flow is weakening.

Closing the June 9 session, VN-Index increased 0.14% to 1,793.05 points but liquidity on HoSE only reached nearly 11,287 billion VND, down more than 29% compared to the previous session.

Money flow still mainly appears in price declines, while recovery sessions take place quite cautiously. After the previous sell-off, supply pressure has eased but new demand has not really returned, causing the upward momentum to lack cash flow consensus.

Liquidity pressure also appears in the real estate market. According to One Mount Group, Hanoi only recorded about 19,500 transactions in the first quarter of 2026, down 7% over the same period and up to 48% over the previous quarter, showing that market absorption is clearly weakening.

Meanwhile, the overnight lending interest rate on the interbank market earlier this week jumped to 9.5% after falling to 6.2% at the end of last week. The gap between credit and mobilisation has widened to about 2.5 million billion VND, reflecting that liquidity pressure in the banking system is still high.

Asset markets recorded great pressure on liquidity. Photo: HA

The above developments show that liquidity pressure is appearing simultaneously in many markets, from stocks, real estate to the banking system.

In the context that Vietnam's economy still maintains growth and macroeconomic stability, analysts believe that the current big challenge lies not in growth but in the ability to maintain smooth capital flow when capital costs increase and cash flow becomes increasingly cautious.

Financial market liquidity is facing challenges

The first signs have appeared on the stock market. From the beginning of the year until now, foreign investors continue to net sell about 70 trillion VND even though Vietnam was upgraded by FTSE in early April. Meanwhile, new supply has increased from issuances to existing shareholders and IPOs reaching about 15 - 30 trillion VND per month.

This forces investment funds and investors to continuously restructure their portfolios in the context of no new cash flow large enough to enter the market.

A series of analysts such as VinaCapital, Dragon Capital, or FiinGroup all believe that stock valuations have become more and more attractive after a long period of recording price discounts. Along with confidence in economic growth prospects and corporate profits, this helps domestic investors absorb some of the new supply.

However, market liquidity has dropped to its lowest level in two years while margin balance remains high, showing that the absorption of cash flow is weakening.

This picture is also reflected in stock price movements. Profit growth of listed enterprises in the first quarter of 2026 is still positive but is forecast to slow down in the last quarters of the year due to the impact of interest rates and inflation, especially in the banking, securities and real estate industry groups.

In fact, many businesses announced business results that exceeded expectations but their stock prices remained flat or decreased. That shows that cash flow and purchasing power are no longer strong enough to support positive information like before. Investors are also more cautious when evaluating future prospects.

According to a recent assessment from SGI Capital, the decline in liquidity and purchasing power in both the stock and real estate markets originated in the period 2020-2025. At that time, loose monetary policy and low interest rates created an abundant amount of cheap money, contributing to a sharp increase in asset prices.

As a result, the supply of assets skyrocketed with a series of large-scale issuances, IPOs and divestments on the stock market, and there was an oversupply of real estate in many segments.

Meanwhile, the growth rate of asset supply is faster than the absorption capacity of cash flow and credit. Outstanding credit debt, corporate bonds and margins are all at high levels, causing liquidity to decline and interest rates to increase, thereby reversing the balance of supply and demand in the market.

In fact, from the beginning of the year until now, major asset channels such as stocks, real estate, gold and cryptocurrencies have all recorded a decline in both price and liquidity. This further reinforces the view that the cycle of cheap money is over and cash is becoming scarcer.

Multi-dimensional pressures from international and domestic macroeconomics

Domestic liquidity pressures take place in the context of a global economy that is fraught with many uncertain risks.

In the energy market, investors are waiting for the possibility of reaching an agreement between the US and Iran to open up oil supplies.

However, Standard Chartered and Goldman Sachs have warned that if the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed, oil prices could exceed 100 USD/barrel.

At that time, Vietnam may face inflation exceeding 5%, 12-month deposit interest rates increased above 8%, while GDP growth decreased by about 2 percentage points due to both domestic and export demand weakening.

This scenario could also have a negative impact on stocks and real estate. Deposit interest rates above 7-8% often cause cash flow to leave securities, and at the same time push home loan interest rates beyond 12-13%, causing real estate demand to decline significantly.

Meanwhile, SGI Capital believes that any delay in opening the Strait of Hormuz could cause oil inventories to fall below the safety threshold, affecting global energy supply.

At the same time, inflationary pressure continues to push bond yields up, causing the room to reduce interest rates to become increasingly narrow. Many central banks have raised interest rates, bringing the global interest rate level from decreasing to increasing.

In the US, the FED continues to shrink its balance sheet while the DXY index returns to the 100 mark, creating more pressure on exchange rates, interest rates and capital flows in emerging markets.

The asset channels all recorded large price discounts. Photo: FireAnt

In the asset market, IPO and additional issuance activities increased sharply in the context of high stock valuations, while Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market lost more than 50% of their value compared to the peak in October 2025.

Accordingly, risks from cryptocurrency can spread to other asset markets, making liquidity an increasingly important factor for emerging economies, including Vietnam.

In that context, the banking system is under pressure as capital mobilisation increases more slowly than credit, causing the gap between mobilisation and lending to widen, bringing the net loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) to exceed 115%.

This forces the State Bank to continuously use tools such as open market operations (OMO), foreign currency swaps (SWAP) and forward selling of USD to support liquidity.

On the other hand, data from the Department of Statistics shows that import-export turnover in the first 5 months of the year exceeded 445 billion USD, up 25% over the same period. However, the trade deficit still amounts to 13.8 billion USD and is forecast to continue to increase due to import demand for infrastructure and real estate investment.

In general, Vietnam's growth foundation is still maintained but pressure on liquidity and trade balance is increasing. In the current period, the ability to maintain a stable capital flow will be the deciding factor in the level of sustainability of growth.

According to experts, investors should prioritize capital preservation and closely monitor domestic and international liquidity signals.

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Source: TheLeader — theleader.vn. The article is reposted for the purpose of sharing knowledge for the founder and investor community in the ecosystem HCM VIF.